Four Downs and a Bracket: Clemson is not as far from College Football Playoff as you think

OK, stop this madness. Stop it right now.

Before we start throwing Dabo Swinney into the same deep end as Billy Napier, let's take a deep breath and reassess. Relax, people.

First Down

Clemson is not as far from the College Football Playoff as you'd think.

"We certainly took one, punched right in the gut," Swinney said in the press conference postmortem of yet another Georgia opponent limping away battered and bruised. "Didn't play those last two quarters like we know we can."

And that's the key. Clemson traded blows for two quarters with Georgia, which in case you don't know by now, is really good at tackle football. That doesn't make an embarrassing 34-3 loss feel any better, but it absolutely shows all isn't lost.

In fact, it shows Clemson can beat anyone in the shaky ACC -- including Miami after its beatdown of Florida -- with the same defensive intensity and a better game from quarterback Cade Klubnik. Because frankly, he can't play much worse.

So while every television bobblehead will tell you Clemson's undoing at the hands of the best team in college football over the last three seasons is a referendum on Swinney's avoidance of all things transfer portal, think deeper. It's easy to panic, to take one bad half and paint with a wide primer brush.

But there's too much good on a defensive line that Georgia struggled to block in the first half. Too much good in the run game behind an improved offensive line. Too much potential with tailback Phil Mafah, and man-mountain defensive tackle Peter Woods and young wideout Antonio Williams. And too much average in the ACC outside of Miami.

Preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Week 0, Playoff sleeper Virginia Tech lost at SEC tomato can Vanderbilt, and North Carolina State struggled with FCS team Western Carolina before pulling away late. So yeah, Clemson's worst loss in a decade was difficult to swallow.

But who on the schedule will match up physically with the defense Clemson rolled out and gave up all of six points in the first half to the sledgehammer that is Georgia? That's the anchor for the remainder of the season at Clemson, not a philosophical argument about using the transfer portal or the narrative that Swinney should've signed a transfer quarterback.

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There's no sugarcoating it, Klubnik played poorly against the best team in the nation in the first game of the season. But we've seen this movie before, and know how it ends.

Bo Nix left Auburn after the 2021 season, and arrived at Oregon with new coach (and former Georgia assistant) Dan Lanning. His first game with the Ducks was against Georgia, in the same building and the same neutral site game ― and he played worse than Klubnik in another Georgia beatdown.

He then led the Ducks to 10 wins and had the then-best season of his career. Ten wins, everyone, will more than likely get Clemson in the playoff -- and certainly if it wins the watered-down ACC and earns an automatic spot in the 12-team field.

"People are going to say whatever they want to say," Swinney said of the looming criticism for Clemson's perceived fall from the national elite. "When you lose like this, they got every right to say whatever they want to say."

Second Down

You've heard the drill by now. If the new 12-team format were around since the birth of the playoff in 2014, Penn State would've played in six tournaments.

Which, of course, means nothing.

What does mean something ― a big something ― is the impact of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Specifically, his impact on uber-talented but still developing quarterback Drew Allar and the ability to get Penn State to its first playoff.

Don't overlook the play of Allar in a difficult environment at West Virginia, against a one-time bitter rival coming off a nine-win season and playing in front of a wild home atmosphere. Those were the games that ate up Allar in his first season as a starter in 2023.

This time under Kotelnicki, Allar played nearly flawless. He threw for 216 yards and three touchdowns, and averaged 12.7 yards per attempt. The bloated yards per attempt number is significant because Penn State was among the worst teams in the nation in 2023 in long pass plays.

Kansas, where Kotelnicki worked in 2023, was among the best. Against West Virginia, Allar had completions of 55, 50, 20 and 19 yards, and stretched the field for an offense that was way too predictable in 2023.

Last season, Allar averaged a paltry 6.8 yards per attempt, and nearly doubled it Saturday against defense that did what every other Penn State opponent did last season: safeties creeping up to stop the run, and man coverage with zero respect for third-level throws.

This time, Allar made the defense pay for those decisions. The next big step is doing it against Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten on the way to the playoff.

Third Down

First, the obvious: it was a glorified scrimmage against FCS member Chattanooga. But did it ever look good in the much-anticipated beginning of Nico Iamaleava's first season as starter at Tennessee.

Before he left early in the second half and after a majority of the damage had been done in a 69-3 rout, an NFL scout texted me and was raving about ― take your pick ― Iamaleava's arm talent, poise, movement in the pocket and accuracy on the roll.

Maybe the best way to explain Iamaleava's spotless performance (314 yards passing, three touchdowns, 11.2 yards per attempt) is how it looked. More like Hendon Hooker, less like Joe Milton.

Translation: accurate throws downfield, less throws to the perimeter.

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"(Iamaleava) looked really comfortable, in control," the NFL scout said. "You can tell he understands pass game concepts, and he throws that thing effortlessly. It was uncomfortable watching (Tennessee) last year because the quarterback wasn't a fit."

We'll get an idea of just how different the Vols are at quarterback with the former five-star recruit from California when Tennessee plays NC State next week in Charlotte. An NC State defense that ― despite what it showed in an ugly win over Western Carolina ― will be a significant test with defensive coordinator Tony Gibson and his exotic pressure packages.

Fourth Down

The big winner of Week 1 is Notre Dame ― if only because the Irish passed their most difficult road test of the season right out of the gate.

How easy is the remainder of the schedule? Notre Dame has only two more true road games.

If those two games (at Purdue and Southern California) are anything like the toughness and moxie the Irish showed in a 23-13 victory at Texas A&M, Notre Dame may not lose this season. Especially with the evolving play of Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard, who played in front of an inexperienced offensive line that had six career starts combined ― and against his former coach (Mike Elko) who knew his strengths and weaknesses ― and played smart and didn't make mistakes.

The Irish rushed for 198 yards behind the patchwork offensive line impacted by injuries in fall camp, and Leonard threw for 158 yards and ran for 63. In the game-wining drive, Leonard had two carries for 20 yards, and completed two passes for 29 yards.

A critical early win, and a galvanizing game.

The Bracket

A 12-team Playoff bracket prediction if the season ended today:

1. Georgia (SEC champion)

2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)

3. Miami (ACC champion)

4. Oklahoma State (Big 12 champion).

No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Alabama

No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Oregon

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State

No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Texas